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Media Archive

December 26, 2014
5% US GDP isn't what it seems On the surface, it would seem that there is an acceleration in US economic activity. 3rd quarter real GDP was revised up from 3.9% to 5.0% annualized this week, commonly cited as the biggest quarter in more than ten years.But, it doesn’t take much digging to see that, again (we wrote a... read more
December 19, 2014
Falling Oil is Part of a Bigger Narrative The fall in oil prices has been a relatively recent phenomena, falling about 50% in the last six months (first chart). But, what is often missed in recent commentary is that oil and the broader energy category is just the last to join a deflationary commodity complex.  It sounds hollow for the Fed to... read more
December 5, 2014
There is a lot more going on than the jobs report today Today’s 321k jobs number was a great deal more than expected and is certainly better for the economy than if it were less, but it does nothing to change our thesis.  This measure of jobs is a small subset of the global condition.  There are so many things taking place around the wo... read more
October 17, 2014
A Momentous Week Up until this week, the market's narrative for interest rates had been that the US economy was getting better and the Fed needed to soon raise rates. And so, clustered tightly around the mid-point of late-summer/early-fall of 2015, the FOMC and market pundits all chimed in with their call on when the Fed would first raise. In an example of the... read more
October 3, 2014
Jobs report was the least interesting thing this week Unusually, the US jobs report was the least interesting economic event that happened this week. Market movements and economic releases were remarkably weaker. A summary of happenings.1.The USD is now 10.1% more expensive to the Euro than it was in May (also 7.6% stronger to the... read more
September 26, 2014
Just another invisible inflection point Several articles written on today’s 4.6% revised Q2 GDP cited it as more evidence of a turning point in the economy. Some quotes (emphasis ours):Reuters “The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years in the second quarter with all sectors contributing to the jump in output in a bullish... read more