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Media Archive

June 17, 2014
Quick Market Comment: The confluence of 3 mis-understood factors causes mis-placed rate rise alarm There is a strain of thinking in the last couple of days that the Fed needs to soon raise rates. See examples from ... read more
June 6, 2014
Output-gap update BackgroundKnowing when the Fed will raise rates is a matter of determining when the spare capacity in the economy (slack) will be eliminated, and therefore, when inflation pressures will develop.  Under normal circumstances, the unemployment rate is a great proxy for spare capacity in the economy. The popular Taylor rule uses the differenc... read more
May 28, 2014
The over-building in China is stark Robert and I just took a 2 week trip through China.  We went through Shanghai, but also wanted to see some specific areas in Yunnan province; Kunming and Dali, as well as nearby Lhasa.  We've been told that people from major cities (Beijing, Shanghai) are trying to move to places like Dali to get away from poor qu... read more
May 2, 2014
Quick Market Comment: Today's Payroll Report Today's payroll report came in strong on the surface: 288k jobs were added in April vs 218k expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% vs. 6.6% expected. But those numbers obscure the continuation of an uglier narrative, one that can be seen by looking beneath the surface.Av... read more
April 17, 2014
Welcome to '' version 4.0 The first '' website was launched in 1999, and we've done three re-designs since then. Today, we launch the 4th version of our website with a slew of modern features to help communicate better with our clients and friends. It is one year in the making. We hope y... read more