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Media Archive

July 30, 2014
The big picture: still no escape velocity Today, annualized Q1 2014 real GDP was revised up from -2.9% to -2.1% and Q2 2014 GDP came in higher than expected at a 4.0% annualized rate. It is certainly better than where we saw growth before this release, but the big picture is unchanged.For the recovery period (5 years), this economic relea... read more
July 25, 2014
Financial Times Letter to Editor Article on Financial Times website (Financial Times subscription required)Good or bad, dollar endures as reserve currencyFrom Mr Robert Kessler.Sir, I write in response to “Chinese moves trump Fed’s effect on US b... read more
July 8, 2014
Inversion not necessary for recession A repeated theme on financial-TV in recent weeks is that there cannot be a recession without a yield-curve inversion first because in each of the last 6 recessions stretching back 50+ years, short-term rates rose above long-term rates before the recession. This is a true statement, however; it is difficu... read more
July 1, 2014
Is this inflationary? Inflation is a hot topic once again, yet, we are seeing significant deflation in grains:  ... read more
June 20, 2014
Inflation lags economics by about 6 months Earlier in the week, we mentioned that inflation lags economics by about 6 months in this post.  Said without support at the time, we... read more