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Media Archive

September 19, 2014
Disinflation moves back to the US Newspapers have well covered inflation falling too low in Europe, but the US is now again joining the problem.It was just three months ago that the inflation hawks on the FOMC were seizing upon short-term trends of inflation above 2% to help argue for higher rates. It is important to understand that raising rates i... read more
September 10, 2014
Don't be fooled by recent hawkish Fed commentary As we go into next week’s Fed meeting, the market has become consumed with the idea that the Fed funds rate may be raised earlier than the market expects, and Treasury bonds have sold off. This is based on two main thoughts. One is that a... read more
September 4, 2014
The world is still coupled Citigroup's surprise indices measure how far above or below economic indicators are being released vs. where economists have expected them to be (surprises).  Readings above 0 indicate more releases coming in better than surveys and vice-versa, below 0.  Citigroup publishes these for many regions around the world.  Because they... read more
September 2, 2014
August 5, 2014
Is this inflationary? #2 First it was the grain commodities, now it is the energy commodities coming down.  Contrary to many predictions, the recent weakness in commodities should put downward pressure on headline inflation in coming months.  ... read more
July 30, 2014
The big picture: still no escape velocity Today, annualized Q1 2014 real GDP was revised up from -2.9% to -2.1% and Q2 2014 GDP came in higher than expected at a 4.0% annualized rate. It is certainly better than where we saw growth before this release, but the big picture is unchanged.For the recovery period (5 years), this economic relea... read more