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Media Archive

August 31, 2015
Who exactly benefits from raising rates? Only banks! It is highly unusual to be so near to a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and not have the decision virtually assured. The September 17th meeting is currently priced with a 60% probability of not raising and a 40% probability of raising…not a decisive split l... read more
August 5, 2015
Japan's experience says don't raise rates soon We think it is more useful to compare economics and interest rates in the period since 2007 in the U.S. (The Great Recession) with the period since 1990 in Japan (Japan’s 2+ lost decades) as well as the period after 1929 in the US (The Great Depression) because they are all... read more
July 20, 2015
Commodities have made new lows We think it is important to write about commodities because they are the primary input to inflation pressures and they deserve more exposure than they get. Studying Bloomberg’s commodity index (chart below), there are some facts worth taking in:1. Today (July 20, 2015), commodities are making a new 13.1 year low,... read more
July 10, 2015
'Whatever it takes' is not enough (and upcoming media announcement) Note: Robert Kessler is Consuelo Mack's guest this week on WealthTrack. This airs on PBS stations in the US at various times this weekend of which a full list is available h... read more
June 25, 2015
Two simple charts Two separate macro issues below, but both largely ignored by the media in this current iteration of 'everything is getting better' sentiment.[note: single left click on the images to make them bigger]... read more